How many of the Jan 6 protestors pardoned by Trump will be arrested between market creation and 11:59EST, Jan 6, 2026? | Manifold

How many of the Jan 6 protestors pardoned by Trump will be arrested between market creation and 11:59EST, Jan 6, 2026?

5

1.1kṀ537

2026

4%

0

6%

1

6%

2-4

10%

5-8

18%

9-16

20%

17-32

12%

33-64

7%

65-128

6%

129-256

6%

257-512

6%

513+

President Trump has pardoned nearly 1,600 protestors who were charged with various crimes related to their participation in the Jan 6 Capitol riot. How many will be arrested for any reason between the beginning of this market and the end of Jan 6, 2026?

This market will resolve one week after close.

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Impossible to resolve this type of market. Good luck tracking arrest status of 1600 people through 3000+ jurisdictions (in the US alone, the rules technically include all countries).

@MaybeNotDepends I'm counting on Mother Jones etc to do a lot of the work for me.

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/how-many-fbi-informants-will-be-sho

Related: https://manifold.markets/jb456/will-any-january-6th-participant-pa

bought Ṁ100 NO

One down https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested

@johnwhiles Need to see whether it was before market creation, but yes, this sort of thing!

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Will Trump pardon 50+ January 6 rioters before EOY 2025?

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