Will the US be a democracy in 2040? | Manifold

Will the US be a democracy in 2040?

17

1kṀ700

2041

85%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As classified by their polity score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018

Close date updated to 2041-01-01 6:59 pm

🇺🇸 US Politics

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I don't think a 10 is likely, but for clarity does this resolve YES for any score greater than 5, or strictly from 6 thru 9 inclusive?

@ShitakiIntaki Any score greater than 5

US "really" being a dictatorship does not seem plausible to me at this point, but a downgrade by Polity is plausible because it has already happened once.

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