Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the UK Parliament by January 2025?
Basic
9
Ṁ716Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on whether they self-identify as an Effective Altruist. Resolves as yes if elected in January 2025 elections.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025?
13% chance
Will the Effective Altriusm philosophy be directly responsible for at least one death in 2024?
18% chance
Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?
28% chance
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
21% chance
Will effective altruism be "winning" over effective accelerationism at the end of 2024?
34% chance
60% of effective altruists will live outside of the US or UK by 2024 (in 2019 45% lived outside the US and UK)
28% chance
Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?
40% chance
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
66% chance
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
75% chance
Will I have a positive view of effective altruism on December 31, 2024?
17% chance