What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
💎
Premium
247
Ṁ120k
Jan 20
3%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
0%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
97%
Trump Re-elected
0.3%
Biden Re-elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

  • To Meet Re-Election:

    • Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

    • Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

  • To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

    • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine

    • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

    • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

    • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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Trump Re-elected
bought Ṁ2,500 Trump Re-elected YES

@DistinctlySkeptical Does this require inauguration? So that wouldn’t be until Jan 20, 2025

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 yes as stated in description

Is there a case where trump or Biden (or Harris)are elected by ineligible voters? Are we in mass voter fraud territory / GRT territory / or just ruling out the possibility that the U.S. states nominate electors based on opinion polls from non U.S. citizens?

bought Ṁ61 Biden Re-elected NO

Why is "Biden re-elected" still 6%?

@AlphaAbulikim I sold my 11,000 position and brought it to 9%. Can't keep waiting for it to resolve, had to get my mana out.

@DistinctlySkeptical you may wanna extend this one

@mattyb MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET

It will at the end of the month if none have "happened first"

bought Ṁ150 Russia/Ukraine Cease... YES

Russia/Ukraine was wildly undervalued since it uses two national entities but Israel/Hamas has one national entity and one specific political party that may be destroyed or disempowered. If Trump loses and Hamas is disempowered, Russia/Ukraine will resolve Yes. Not an absurd scenario!

sold Ṁ43 Israel/Hamas Ceasefire YES

@DistinctlySkeptical I humbly request Harris's elected option.

I don't have 10k Mana for a "PLUS" market but here is a BASIC market.
@traders


Much obliged

reposted

Biden Drops Out.

To clarify, the presidential results would very likely resolve on January 20th, since that's the inauguration date?

Someone must have hacked my account and put 10K into this because I don't remember this. But regardless I don't mind, since it's the right answer.

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