Judged solely by me, informed by things like news stories, Google Trends, influence, etc. Doesn't necessarily have to be politically relevance. If, for instance, Kevin McCarthy is invited to speak at the GOP Convention, that will go a long way towards him possibly winning. If Santos lands on a reality show, that will help him, etc. etc. etc.
-Kevin McCarthy has a lot of friends, and a war chest. He's more likely to be at least a minor player for a while.
-George Santos has an upcoming trial and is far more entertaining. His future is much more volatile, and he could easily fade away quickly.
If I judge them both to be completely and totally irrelevant on election day 2024, SANTOS will win bc it'll be a much harder fall for Kevin.
Status update: they're both very irrelevant rn, but I think McCarthy is winning for relevancy. He's still meddling in Republican primaries in the background. Santos needs to get on a reality show or something.
There's still a possible chance for Santos winning if I deem Kevin McCarthy completely irrelevant (very unlikely but possible).
McCarthy’s seat will be filled no earlier than April 28? ( Going by the 120-146 days plus 0-14 days from assuming he resigns at the end of the year, April 30 is the next Tuesday).
RNC convention starts Jul 15.
Santos federal trial starts Sep 9.
The first presidential debate is Sep. 16.
If there are presidential debates in 2024, it seems inevitable that Republican departures and the chaos in the last year will come up as a topic. If Santos trial starts as scheduled it will likely be in the news cycle to and make a good aside in a topic about leadership and stability, but if not, at least warrant a talking point by the Democratic Party candidate. If McCarthy is working in politics still as he said he will be, I don’t imagine him being too much in the public awareness, other then in headlines regarding fundraising and campaigning efforts, and these are usually lower key headlines than indicted congressman.
If Trump is convicted or something else unprecedented happens with the speakership again then all bets are off.