Each of the below markets resolves on Jan 1 12:00AM EST for each of the labeled years. They resolve based on whether the below linked market is above 50% at that time (Jan 1 of each year).

This market is an attempt to create derivatives markets. The markets should approxamitely follow the probability of the linked market until near their closing date at which they will become increasingly volatile.

The displayed value of the market will be used. If the market is displaying exactly 50% then the corresponding market for that year also resolves to 50%. less than or equal 49% resolves NO. greater than or equal 51% resolves YES

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

50% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.