Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028 | Manifold

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

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https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

48% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

If above market resolves between January 1st and March 31th of 2028, this market resolves YES, otherwise in resolves NO.

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https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023

Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

"All otherwise undated predictions are about 1/1/2028."

I'm interested to hear a compelling argument for why the other nine months of 2028 are not in 2028.

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

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Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

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