Resolves YES if in my opinion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)
This market is more likely to resolve YES if:
*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother
* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward
This market is more likely to resolve NO if:
*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public
1,000
3.00@Bayesian It seems it would not because his definition of breakthrough seems to require public interest. Not a fan of that criteria, and in spirit I think o1 and o3 should definitely make it resolve yes
@JaundicedBaboon grok image generation has pretty big public impact with more non-technical people creating high quality AI images
@ChinmayTheMathGuy and o3 probably meets the 2nd criteria: " There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward"
but it's not public facing yet
Multimodal AI that reasons through the structure of proteins:
@SimoneRomeo see the discussion in the other/earlier resolving market https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-there-be-another-major-publicf?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA