How long will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House? Choose the month he will be ousted or leave the speakership | Manifold

How long will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House? Choose the month he will be ousted or leave the speakership

Plus

40

Ṁ21k

Feb 2

0.1%

Oct 2023

0.2%

Nov 2023

0.1%

Dec 2023

0.1%

Jan 2024

0.1%

Feb 2024

0.2%

Mar 2024

0.2%

Apr 2024

0.1%

May 2024

0.1%

Jun 2024

0.1%

Jul 2024

0.1%

Aug 2024

0.1%

Sep 2024

0.1%

Oct 2024

0.9%

Nov 2024

0.7%

Dec 2024

8%

Jan 2025

89%

Feb 2025 or after

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Republican Party

#Speaker of the House election

#Republican Party Dysfunction

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@mods does this market type allow resolving expired options to NO before there is a final YES?

@AnonUser No, you have to resolve all of the options at once

bought Ṁ10 Apr 2024 YES

Johnson sounds out key Republicans with speakership and Ukraine aid on line

House is on recess (""district work period.") through April 8th, so he should be safe through March.

Should October 2023 resolve NO at this point?

bought Ṁ60 Apr 2024 NO

@SpeaksForTrees It's a single multiple-choice market, there's currently no way to resolve one option of it without resolving the whole market.

It'll probably happen fast (like this week), or they'll settle in for the long haul ...

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