Does it count as 3 distinct incidents if they happen simultaneously, but in different places?

Related market about death toll

https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-hamas-kill-more-than-9-people

Will Hamas kill more than 9 people in the US over the next 12 months?

12% chance. Ends 10/10/2024. PST time zone, in the unlikely event that makes a difference.

Even if the Twitter thread was correct, the chance of "at least 3 incidents of terror" would be near zero. Which means at least that this market is not remotely close to being a test of the thread's credibility.

(I agree it has no credibility; I am just saying that Yudkowsky's market is not relevant, and it isn't.)

Eh, "and they also know their will be attacks targeting our major cities" has "attacks" in plural, so multiple, and "our major cities" also implies over two.

@jacksonpolack If they knew that they would be planning on stopping it, so there would not be "incidents."

The implication is Dementia Joe isn't doing anything about the terrorists because it'd be racist, so the attacks will happen

America is next. Joe Biden and his handlers are responsible for what is set to happen.

upthread is

Phone call I just got from someone who works with a diplomat frightened me and not many things frighten me. I would not be in a big city for the next 12 months.

and downthread

But from what I was told, there are some nations are quietly removing their diplomats from big cities in the United States and Europe, because they know what’s about to happen. I pray I’m incorrect.

That's a strong enough claim it's likely someone in the chain is intentionally fabricating it, I think

@DavidBolin What would be relevant to the tweet, in your opinion? (If you don't want to write / judge a question, I might be interested in doing that part.)

@EvanDaniel "Will anyone be arrested who turns out to have belonged to a Hamas terror cell in the US?"

That is far more likely than any attacks actually being carried out.

@DavidBolin Huh. That doesn't seem to me like it matches up with "I would not be in a big city for the next 12 months" at all.

One arrest, with no requirement that the arrest be terror-related or that the plot be credible or anything like that? Never mind a successful attack? I said I would, so I'll write that up and submit if you want, but it's not the answer I was expecting to hear.

@DavidBolin I made a question closer to what I think is representative. Any arrests of Hamas terrorists, with a requirement that the charges be terrorism-related:

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-any-hamas-terrorists-be-arrest

Will any Hamas terrorists be arrested in the US in the next year? (Oct 8th, 2024)

50% chance. A number of US pundits and politicians have suggested that Hamas may be plotting terror attacks inside the US or otherwise infiltrating the US. Will any of them be arrested for that within a year of the Hamas attacks on Israel? The arrest must take place no later than 2024-10-08; the charges must include terrorism-related charges; and there must be evidence presented as part of the indictment, arrest warrant, or judicial proceeding that the person was affiliated with Hamas. The close date is left open a bit longer to allow for reporting delays. It will be extended if there is a reported arrest where it isn't yet clear whether it qualifies. A conviction is not required, merely an arrest with the evidence presented. Accusations by politicians, pundits, or news media are not adequate; the accusation must take the form of charges filed or evidence presented to a court or judge, as part of an arrest warrant, indictment, or trial.

Also, another question: does anyone here believe this might happen with p > 1%?

(i am actually curious and would love for someone to comment & explain why if so)

@jacksonpolack No. But I expect others will.

I tried that strategy against marcus's limits a few times in the past, and it didn't go well.

@jacksonpolack probability of a single incident is well under 1%. probability of three different attacks is probably like 1 in a million.

@jacksonpolack ISIS propaganda radicalized some Muslims living in the west in the 2010s, right? I suppose that could happen again, although it might not even count. But I wouldn't count it as a zero

@jacksonpolack Yeah I’m not holding my breath and it’s a tiny position. I also think it’s <1% likely, maybe even <.1%.

@jacksonpolack didn't bet, but I could see the justification if its something you may have believed without the obviously stupid twitter thread. at 1-2% for an entire year, a terrorist group doing terrorist things to an enemies allies isn't that outlandish. of course you could just extend that justification to most terrorist groups, but that might actually be true a such a 1-2% rate

@jacksonpolack if this happens, I think it's plausible that it would be 3 distinct attacks on the same day (e.g. Oct 13 was flagged as an auspicious day by Khaled Meshaal for a global wave of attacks). Funny the Hamas terrorist leadership can chill in perfect safety in Qatar, while dementia Joe makes Qatar a MNNA. On the other hand, Biden won't revoke the "state sponsor of terrorism" label put on Cuba because Florida is a battleground state. How can anyone take the US seriously when it harbors countries harboring terrorists?

@Gurkenglas is that an actual belief or did you just find it funny

10k limit at 4% if anyone's interested