unless there is some specific or unspecific environmental damage that takes the mosqitoes out of the equation, its not going away ; these organisms can avoid the immune system and it is hard to create a vaccine for it , so please play this question YES : )

https://www.who.int/activities/eliminating-malaria

The WHO is not even aiming at eradication by 2030. Their target is elimination from 30 countries between 2016 and 2030. On the African mainland there are only two malaria-free countries.

Also, the WHO definition of eradication and elimination requires three years without cases. Will this question resolve NO as soon as a malaria case is reported in 2027, making eradication literally impossible?

Under the given resolution criteria, it would seem to do so.

I'd bet this to under 5% if it didn't lock up mana for a few months to do so. Malaria's still so common that this is not fully doable in that timeframe.

We still haven't eradicated polio. I don't see a path to eradicating malaria in 7 years.

Despite there being a vaccine available, I don't think that they'll be able to get it sufficiently rolled out to eradicate malaria by 2030. I'm also doubtful that anyone will successfully carry out a mosquito gene drive in the wild, across all of the places that have malaria, by then. There are a lot of countries with malaria to cover in the next seven years.