Only if Max Verstappen wins the 2024 World Drivers Championship and Red Bull comes in 2nd or below in the World Constructor Championship will this resolve to YES. If Max loses the WDC or RBR wins the WCC this will resolve NO.
I will not participate in this market myself.
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1.00@AnonPlz I'm curious. What's reasoning behind buying NO after RBR list the lead in the WCC while Max winning WDC became more likely?
@Enlil I don’t think Max’s odds are higher than 65%. So it’s based purely on that. While Max may have become more likely following the weekend than before, he became much less likely between qualifying and after the race, when I bet. I think any weekend Lando is liable to take 15 points out of him
@AnonPlz The expectation that Lando should be able to gain 15 points every race weekend seems entirely reasonable. I agree that he should have been able to do this likely since Silverstone or at least Hungary. Yet, he hasn't managed to do so in a single race. It's kinda cursed honestly
@Enlil Yeah, seems like every weekend there is a new non-predictive event keeping him from closing the gap. All the luck/team/driver errors have been astounding. I am betting that they really are non-predictive I guess!
@Enlil Has Singapore changed your percentages at all? McLaren is a second a lap faster than Red Bull in the relevant phases, but also another weekend gone without enough of a point swing. And we have Red Bull rumored upgrades for COTA. Not sure how it’s changed mine.
@AnonPlz I think I got sightly more confident in Max winning. Lando's lead in this race is incredible. At the same time this was the race where I'd have expected RBR to perform worst this season, yet Max came in at a confident P2 well ahead of Piastri. Now Lando needs to score even more points per weekend despite this dominant win.
I'm not sure if and how to account for Lando having had two moments that could have easily lead to Max getting 25 points on him. Doesn't make me more bullish on Lando not making a big mistake in one of the coming races.