More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive
Standard
12
Ṁ3582048
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We will wait til they are age 22 or a reasonable age. and evaluate whether at least 50% never learn to drive. Provisional due date mid 2048
This is based on a marginal revolution blog post by Alex Tabarrok: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/autonomous-vehicles-lower-insurance-costs.html
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will my children need to learn to drive?
33% chance
Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
44% chance
Fewer than 10k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
54% chance
Fewer than 20k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
54% chance
Will Elon Musk die before 75% of the US has self driving cars
52% chance
Global car traffic deaths in 2026
1.2m
Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?
26% chance
Greater than 45k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
46% chance
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?
27% chance
Will I regret getting a driver's license in 2023 by 2030?
33% chance