Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
Plus
23
Ṁ8612039
47%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
72% chance
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
53% chance
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
35% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
70% chance
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
56% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
69% chance
Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
17% chance
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
73% chance
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
70% chance
Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?
75% chance