OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027
Basic
6
Ṁ1082027
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1. There wil lbe an LLM released in China which many Chinese people can use (possibly with the normal ID verification, etc.). It should be in broad release, either to the public or available in large companies or universities.
2. It will be censored according to the contemporary Chinese CCP Censorship regime.
3. Its supporting AI technology is provided or supported by Microsoft or openAI
If OpenAI / MS split, the claim covers both of them.
If OpenAI tech goes open source/or is stolen and China or some other country runs it, without MS/OpenAI cooperation, that does not make this market resolve Yes.
If a Chinese entity pays OpenAI for tech but runs it themselves, including running the censorship part, that qualifies as YES
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
44% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?
6% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
84% chance
Will Microsoft shut down it's A.I Lab in China?
30% chance
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
33% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance
Will a LLM-based AI be used for a law enforcement decision before 2025?
22% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
40% chance
Who will be ahead in the AI/LLM war by the end of 2024?
Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?
17% chance