Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, the US government issues some form of rule or export control that restricts Chinese firms from accessing via cloud compute/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) at least some of the same chips that they are prevented from purchasing through physical export controls. Yes resolution is triggered when a law is enacted or a final rule is published that would impose such restrictions, regardless of whether or not the rule takes effect before 2025.

This question resolves as No otherwise.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.