What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana
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แน€14k
Jan 1
90%
At least six countries
90%
Brazil
90%
South America
88%
Africa
86%
Peru
73%
An island state (see comment)
63%
UK
54%
Asia
49%
Israel
48%
Alabama
48%
Canada
45%
Mississippi
45%
At least 30 states
41%
Mexico
38%
A landlocked country
34%
India
34%
At least 39 states
33%
Japan
33%
A country founded in a prime number year
32%
Ukraine

There must be some kind of report or proof that he was there but it can be pretty light. Any time spent on land in the country counts.

Flying over, cruising, etc don't.

It must be Biden himself not a replacement or successor.

Note: I wish I'd used Biden or his successor, not exactly him, since that reduces the constant recalculation of health risks. Politically, that's most of what matters too. I used that system in my other market and it worked well.

/Ernie/2024-biden-wins-which-states-multip

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bought แน€200 Answer #688c4812994a YES

@mods Ernie has been pinged multiple times below in comments, can we get a bunch of resolutions according to comments please? ๐Ÿ™

@HenriThunberg hey, I'll review today, sorry for missing them

@Ernie Anything else open I need to look at?

A country founded in a prime number year

@Ernie What would you use for Germany's founding year? There's a large "it depends" here.

@Quroe the unification day?

@Ernie which a supe racial Google search says is 1990

opened a แน€1,000 Answer #5f59fa532c56 YES at 99.0% order
filled a แน€193 Answer #59bce5b1bce8 YES at 99.0% order

Italy, France, and Arizona can also YES out.

@Ernie italy resolves yes

also AZ

Does the (island) after Taiwan mean that if Biden visits Kinmen it won't count, or is it just saying that someone people don't consider Taiwan to be a country?

@JoshuaWilkes I think I've been using that terminology to count both of those. I don't want to make people who don't believe it's a country uncomfortable, so I talk about just the island. And since for all these claims, there seems to be a pretty big difference between taiwan island "mainland" than those other holdings, I don't mind excluding them. Plus, I also gain the ability to automatically exclude any other new holdings the government there may gain at some point.

Dang you all think he's gonna be seriously active, eh

@Ernie I don't, but I haven't yet built my mana bankroll enough to bring this market closer to reality haha.

An island state (see comment)

Want to clarify that when I wrote this I was taking an expansive view of what might be considered an island state. So, for example, I was intending it to include places like Indonesia and Singapore as well as places like Fiji.

Happy for Ernie to adjudicate though!

@JoshuaWilkes ah okay will update. There are no notifs for new answers so I didn't see this.

@JoshuaWilkes is there a list? Otherwise I can add your comment and we let gpt decide

Will you resolve answers like 'South America' correct, or only countries and US states?

@JoshuaWilkes oh, I see you entered that answer. I think it should be okay!

@JoshuaWilkes yeah! Meta is fine!! But I'll correct any ambiguous ones. Also in this market type even partial overlap is okay!

@Ernie I've been thinking maybe one of these for Xi? It could be pretty relevant.

If you limit it to the first ten international visits only, it makes it a lot more intense I image as you get down to one left. Do you follow it that closely? I've been trying to think of even more big mc markets to play with

@Ernie we'd have to look at Xi's visits this year, but my instinct is he hasn't made many more than ten anyway.

I think doing it in some form is a very good idea!

@JoshuaWilkes pre- and post- covid are quite different, he was doing 10-20 visits before, but just 5 at the end of 2022 and only 3(!) this year

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