The Democratic candidate wins which states? Plus 36 other weird election markets. Tons of mana, 12k liquidity
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Plus
146
Ṁ99k
Nov 9
23%
Will it rain in NYC on election day 8am-8pm at all?
6%
Sum all state name lengths Biden wins; is that more than his opponent?
3%
Will Biden win an odd number of states?
4%
Biden wins more land area
5%
Either major candidate wins a prime number of states
10%
Will Trump get Netanyahu's endorsement?
10%
Would Biden win if state EV weights were the scrabble value of the state name?
10%
Will there be 25+ close states (less than 6% absolute percent gap between top two vote getters)?
10%
Would Biden win if state EV weights were the scrabble value of the state two letter abbreviation?
9%
Biden wins states containing more 1m+ cities
8%
Of the top 50 cities, more than half will be in states Biden won
99.1%
Will Biden states be in 4+ separate connected (on a map) blocks? Great lakes don't connect
8%
Will a state be very close? (<1000 vote diff)
15%
Will a state be close? (<10000 vote diff)

Which states will Biden win the electoral votes of? 100% = Biden wins this states electoral votes. "Biden" generally means "the democratic candidate", details below.

If split then that state resolves proportionally to what he gets. If he is out then we use whatever the Democratic party replacement candidate gets.

Although Washington DC does have EVs that count, it is not a state.

After you're done voting on the states, take your shot at the {metamarkets}. Don't think too much, just have fun. I'll try to resolve them as simply and carefully as possible. Any resolution details needed will be below here.

In general by Biden I mean him or his replacement if he drops out. Same for Trump. This is awkward but it makes betting safer and is somewhat unlikely. I only require the exact person if I say so; otherwise Biden means the democratic nominee and Trump means the republican nominee.

If I say will Biden give a concession speech after losing that is not a conditional. That means both of those things have to happen. And given the above it doesn't have to be Biden himself.

In general by win/loss if not specified I mean winning the EV of states. So "Biden wins more land area" means Biden wins the EVs of states whose land area totals more than other candidates. Split EVs split the area proportionally to state. We will ignore state subdistrict etc. If proportionality doesn't make sense for example the prime number of won states market, I'll convert the won proportion to an integer. If split exactly it won't count at all. For counting states win, we force integer if possible.

This market is about traditionally defined elector wins and not about unfaithful electors. So its result, barring contested state results, should mostly be determinable quickly without waiting for the actual college to perform the ritual.

Proof generally must be found by election day +2 IE November 7 2024.

When I say election day I mean midnight November 5th, Pacific time. Although Hawaii is still open then. But if the election is officially delayed, we will reinterpret references to it based on that new date. This is because the goal of the market is to discuss candidate behavior and results, not limited by actual calendar date but rather by the functional effect, that is, influencing the election.

Regarding dates, generally the options for things happening last from the moment of option creation until the end of election day.

All replies in the comments below by me are merely guidance. The only official rules are the spirit of the market and the title and description. I am not here to trick people or exploit, or argue l, so I'll try to solve things reasonably. Please help me with this; we're all here to have fun.

All claims resolve in California time unless otherwise stated. I also sometimes say pt or pdt when I mean "the time in San Francisco" because I don't know when daylight savings starts or ends exactly.

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Okay things seem settled. I'll run some numbers hopefully smoothly with Claude tomorrow and resolve the obscure ones here

Hey all. Thanks for trading. I'll be looking into these in the coming days and evaluating once there is a solid consensus. I hope I can balance getting your money back quick with not disappointing anyone with too early resolutions. Remember that if things change we can always revert later on.

Will Biden states be in 4+ separate connected (on a map) blocks? Great lakes don't connect

@Ernie For 2020, was Michigan considered "connected" to Wisconsin through Upper Peninsula? Think that's my last question for now, sorry.

@Ernie Can we sub out Biden for Harris on this one?

@Ernie ME-2 doesn't count? lol

I would assume it doesn’t count since it specifies “states” not districts

bought Ṁ300 Answer #e55b49480d8e YES
reposted

Let's go weird election markets

@Ernie, please update the title.

thank you.

Is this a specific one or no?

Yes

bought Ṁ100 Answer #47d23f086942 YES

Confirmed?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #9317b3d99b2e YES

If Biden drops out does this all resolve no?

From description: In general by Biden I mean him or his replacement if he drops out

In general by Biden I mean him or his replacement if he drops out.

@mods resolves yes

does it? if biden gets replaced?

bought Ṁ537 Answer #f529e13b5fc0 YES

@Ernie resolves yes

I believe there are nine states that qualify for this: New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, North Carolina, South Carolina, Rhode Island.

The median state in the group is New Hampshire, which currently has a chance of 84% of being won by the Democrats.

opened a Ṁ50 Answer #379447e013c4 NO at 50% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 What about West Virginia?

@themightysalmon Shoot, you're right, lol. I guess it will probably split 5-5.

Will Biden states be in 4+ separate connected (on a map) blocks? Great lakes don't connect

Does this include Hawaii?

@benshindel Or Alaska?

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