Will Tesla deliver more than 50000 Cybertrucks in H1 2024?
Standard
12
Ṁ2816
resolved Jul 16
Resolved
NO

Market will remain open until we know clearly how many were delivered.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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@Ernie You resolved >5000 in h1 as yes. Think it is very clearly not 50000 so can this one also resolve?

My comment on that market was
"Per comments below, Troy Teslike with ~3% errors (less on production) is estimating 3443+10913
And if you want something from Tesla there is the recall number of 11688."

Will be more than 11688 and could be more than 3443+10913 but can't possibly be by amount needed to reach 50000 because

Other vehicles (S+X + Cybertruck + Semi) numbers q1 17027 q2 21551
So definitely less than 38578

@mods unresponsive creator, clear resolution

it's bad to resolve based on estimates, even if you're 99.99% confident the estimates are correct, but in this case their press releases bound the cybertruck numbers

Tesla also revealed the number of vehicles affected by the recall — 11,688 trucks — which would equate to the number of Cybertrucks sold since it includes vehicles in use, and in transit to customers.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-finally-know-how-many-cybertrucks-tesla-has-sold-so-far-163314428.html



https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1798153321078792331
Earlier version has y axis labels

https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1774574335828603151

The line is designed to produce 125k pa eventually. Probably under 5k produced and ~4k delivered in Q1. There is no way they are getting close to even 30k in Q2, probably more like 9k.

No way that 50k can be reached. But whether that is enough to resolve is up to @Ernie

Tesla will likely never disclose the exact number (they will be reported in sum with models X and S). How will you resolve the question?

@Prin Some people track VIN numbers, can probably get within 2% or less and this isn't going to get anywhere near that close. More like under 5500 for h1 2024

Okay, but still it would be nice to have resolution criteria mentioned in the question description.