How will presidential polls (538) shift in the week after the first debate?

2024 US Presidential Election FiveThirtyEight

Basic

Ṁ27k

resolved Jul 5

ALL

100%99.5%

Trump +2.0 to +2.9

0.0%

Biden +3.0 or more

0.0%

Biden +2.0 to +2.9

0.1%

Biden +1.0 to +1.9

0.1%

Biden +0.3 to +0.9

0.1%

Trump +0.2 to Biden +0.2

0.1%

Trump +0.3 to +0.9

0.0%

Trump +1.0 to +1.9

0.0%

Trump +3.0 or more

This question will resolve based on the change in polls as reported by 538, from June 27 (the day of the first debate) to July 4th (a week after).

This will use the polls as reported to the nearest 0.1%; all answers are inclusive.

For example, if the poll result on June 27th is Trump +0.7 (where it is as of question writing) and then on July 4th it is Trump +0.2, that is a swing towards Biden of 0.5 points, and the answer "Biden +0.3 to +0.9" will resolve Yes and all others No.

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9 Comments

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bought Ṁ10,000 Trump +2.0 to +2.9 YES

July 4th numbers are Trump +2.4; that's a Trump +2.2 swing.

The chart here is wild; I think prediction market prices generally, this one included, drive home the fact that the last week has surprised a bunch of people.

Resolve?

Looks to me like the June 27 number is Trump +0.2. Now we wait a week...

bought Ṁ10 Trump +0.2 to Biden ... YES

One week is probably too soon for much movement. Would be more interested in a 2-week market, maybe a month.

Scott "One week is probably too soon for much movement. Would be more interested in a 2-week market, maybe a month" Supak

Bidens senility was a cheap fake

Seems too confident on +-0.2. I have not run a program yet, but I'm pretty sure noise alone would make it less likely than this market, even without a debate.