Why is the embedded market so much lower even though it goes on for another year? Is it because the definition of "troops" includes "in any capacity" over here (the embedded question just say "troops")

The question is focused on "fighting" whereas mine is broad enough to include things like training and maintenance as long as they take place on Ukrainian soil. So it makes sense.

My guess: The main reason why France didn't send official trainers back in early June was because the parties (NATO and Russia) agreed that official trainers and official combat troops are comparable, so it would mean an escalation of the conflict also if merely trainers be sent. So since they didn't send the official trainers immediately (but rather took the humiliation from not doing what R. Macron said they would) I don't think they will during the rest of the year either. (But France might invent another label than military trainers, like say military scouts or military linebackers, and then you'll have to decide if this counts as "troops in any capacity", then US and Russia will also agree on whether this counts as troops, and if it does they will not be sent to Ukraine.)

Is an instructor who is neither fighting nor repairing equipments but training local troops considered troops being sent?

@figo Idk, but Reuters say they will also be "keeping equipment operational" so I guess they should. In either case, they count as troops here (my question..):

@figo Sure, as long as the person doing the training is active military.

At this time the claims made in Asia Times that the French Foreign Legion's 3rd Infantry Regiment has been deployed to Ukraine cannot be confirmed and have been denied by French officials. The claim was made by an ex U.S. official with books to sell (he's an author) so that's tenuous at best. So are the so-called leaked documents. As far as German Chancellor Scholtz's remarks are concerned, I think the journalists are really reading into it. He doesn't actually say anything of the sort but the press is trying to put words in his mouth for sensationalism.

At this time I need stronger evidence than what has come up in order to resolve as YES.

Today the French Ambassador in Moscow met with Russian Foreign Ministry and issued a statement that France would not send any military to Ukraine.

@CharlieBauer Good to know, but that can still change by EOY.

@CharlieBauer but today it was mentioned by Florent:

I confirm that by "capacity" I meant the role the troops will take on, not their number.

Troops may be sent in any role for the YES. Did that agreement you mention cover that?

@KongoLandwalker agreement?

sorry for the confusion I was commenting that 22% is too high not that the bet should be resolved

@FlorentROUFFIGNAC I meant statement.

@CharlieBauer I guess more people bought YES and made the % go up. It all sounds like misinformation for now though.

What about the Gendarmerie that protect the embassy?

@JimAusman That mission predates the war and this contract. Also, although Gendarmerie is part of the Ministry of Defense they do not have the same mission. I would consider a deployment of the GIGN this year as a troop deployment though.

They already have, there is evidence in leaked documents and from German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Does this count, or does France have to officially confirm it? I'm guessing France wants to keep this ambiguous for obvious reasons.

@Arky as far as i heard, those are instructors and supervisors. Neither to fight nor to repair.

@KongoLandwalker The description says "any capacity." The creator said in a comment below that even military bodyguards count.

@Arky my english might be bad, but i read it "in any capacity = in any amount of humans", not "for any purpose".

@Arky @FlorentROUFFIGNAC would instructors count towards YES?

@KongoLandwalker I think in this case "in any capacity" means any role would count. Capacity can mean the size / number of something, but the specific phrase "in any capacity" generally means "in any role, regardless of importance"

@Arky I'm not worried about that scenario. Negotiations usually take place on neutral ground anyway.

@FlorentROUFFIGNAC I’m not sure what this means?

@KongoLandwalker I confirm that by "capacity" I meant the role the troops will take on, not their number.

@Arky I am reviewing this information right now, sorry for the delay.