Will We Have a C-3PO Level Humanoid Robot by EOY 2025?
Basic
30
Ṁ4701
2025
67%
chance

This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025, a humanoid robot is publicly demonstrated to have the following characteristics, matching or exceeding the capabilities typically associated with the fictional Star Wars character C-3PO. Importantly, the robot does not need to resemble C-3PO in appearance as long as it fits the following criteria:

  1. Humanoid Form: The robot must have a humanoid appearance, meaning a form that includes a torso, head, two arms, and two legs, closely resembling a human structure. It must be able to walk upright on two legs.

  2. Advanced Language Processing: The robot must have language processing and communication abilities at least at the level of typical 2024 level LLMs, including fluency in multiple human languages, with the ability to engage in complex conversations, understand context, and respond intelligently to various topics.

  3. AI-Driven Personality: The robot must exhibit a distinct personality perceived as self-aware and driven by its own internal motivations. It must be able to interact with humans in a way that suggests it has an independent perspective, even if this is a well-crafted illusion.

  4. General Functionality: While the robot does not need to perform difficult manual labor, it must at least be capable of general-purpose tasks such as offering assistance, providing information, or completing service-related functions autonomously. It must function independently, without external control for routine operations.

  5. Widely Available Demonstration: The robot must be demonstrated by a publicly recognized entity in a way that confirms it exists and functions as described. This demonstration must be covered by credible media outlets, tech organizations, or other authoritative sources, verifying the robot's abilities.

Exclusions:

  • The market resolves to NO if no such humanoid robot exists by the specified deadline, or if only prototypes or partial demonstrations exist that do not meet all of the above criteria.

  • The market also resolves to NO if a robot exists but requires external human control for key operations or fails to exhibit the required level of language and personality-driven interaction.

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what is a "service-related function"

things like answering questions, giving directions, helping with small tasks, escorting someone, carrying light objects, greeting people, or handling basic customer service duties. The robot should be able to do these things on its own without needing someone to control it.

Does C3PO ever interact with objects?

Mostly I think C3PO just walks around and talks (which I think current robots with the new ChatGPT voice mode could do decently well)

Yeah but we have yet to find out if these demos are staged or something. Like can it really walk around autonomously? Was the Figure demo with chatgpt speaking really not scripted?

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