In Oct 2022, Mark Bankston, the plaintiff's attorney in the Texas suit against Infowars, predicted that due to the lawsuits brought by the Sandy Hook families against Alex Jones, Infowars LLC, and Free Speech Systems, Infowars "wasn't long for this world". He and podcast hosts proceeded to speculate about who would get the show's assets, including the desk and even the "Infowars" website and trademark.
However he also said he didn't think Alex Jones would ever fully stop broadcasting, merely that Infowars would never again be what it was.
So, will Infowars actually go down? I will use my best judgement to resolve this question. Some things that would cause a YES resolution:
-Infowars becoming defunct as a company (obviously)
-Banned dot video, Infowars website, Infowars store ceasing to operate
-A significant reduction in staff, tech, or streaming or a loss of the studio so that the show no longer looks visually professional and/or is much harder for a standard user to access
If by market close, I can still go to Infowars and watch the show on some platform and it looks like it has for the past decade, market will resolve NO. I only will resolve YES if it's clearly apparent that Infowars is nothing like it currently is. A very apparent fall from grace. Like, Alex Jones still doing a podcast from a basement studio doesn't count as Infowars.
1,000
3.00"A Houston bankruptcy judge on Friday ordered the personal assets of the Infowars conspiracy theorist Alex Jones to be liquidated and sold, with the proceeds distributed among the Sandy Hook families. But the judge spared Mr. Jones from having to shutter his Infowars business empire.
The ruling will allow Mr. Jones to continue broadcasting on Infowars, while the families continue to pursue payment of the enormous defamation damages awarded them.
The outcome sharply divided the Sandy Hook families. Families who sued Mr. Jones in Texas favored Friday’s decision, which will keep Mr. Jones on the air but allow them to potentially receive more in damages from the Infowars income. Families who sued Mr. Jones in Connecticut favored settling for less money and shutting Mr. Jones down, although they acknowledged he would not be silenced entirely."
Created a new market in the wake of Alex Jones reinstatement on X.
https://manifold.markets/BrianCaulfield/will-alex-jones-be-banned-from-the
Just listened to the first couple episodes of "Alex Jones dot live". He made very clear that this was a completely new venture that had nothing to do with Infowars, Free Speech Systems, or Banned Dot Video. Therefore, that website and its content will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Manifold in the wild: Will Infowars go down? A prediction market.
URL: https://manifold.markets/ForrestTaylor/will-infowars-go-down?r=Rm9ycmVzdFRheWxvcg