Background
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. Donald Trump served as the 45th President from 2017-2021 and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has previously made comments suggesting he might seek more than two terms, though these statements have often been characterized as rhetorical rather than literal policy positions.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2028 (January 1, 2028 - December 31, 2028), Donald Trump explicitly states that he is a candidate for a third term as President of the United States. This includes:
A formal announcement of candidacy
Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission
Clearly stating "I am running for president" or equivalent language in public remarks, interviews, social media posts, or other verifiable communications
The market resolves to NO if:
Trump never makes such a statement during the year of 2028
1,000Given some of the loopholes* trump has mentioned considering exploiting, we need a market not for necessarily whether Trump will be a candidate for a third term, but for whether he will serve at all 2028-2032. I don't really have Manifold chops but maybe someone else could create the market?
* one mentioned loophole is that Vance would run, with Trump as VP on the ticket, and then Vance would resign https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/us/trump-third-term.html Others were alluded to but not explicated.