Will a new type of AI model replace transformers as the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology by 2024?
Plus
16
Ṁ1810Dec 31
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is NOT transfomer-based model on December 31st 2024.
Resolves NO if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is transformer-based, such as the GPT architecture on December 31st 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Tomoffer If the core functionality of the AI stems from a transformer, this resolves no. I realize this is a bit subjective but "I'll know it when I see it". Essentially, this only resolves yes if there's a breakthrough model that beats current transformer-based models in a significant number of benchmarks.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
3% chance
Which of these AI predictions will happen in 2024?
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
36% chance
Where will the next major breakthrough in AI originate from before 2025?
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?
44% chance
Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
33% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?