Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?
Has to be a service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city.
Boring company tunnels don’t count.
Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - No driver: The vehicle must be fully autonomous with no driver present.
Open to non Tesla employees: The service must be available to the general public, not just Tesla employees.
Point-to-point ride: The ride must travel from one distinct location to another over a distance of at least 1 mile (routes that simply loop or circle do not qualify).
Operates on public roads: The ride must occur on public roads (excluding places like Boring Company tunnels).
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on 'anywhere':
The term anywhere in the world means that the autonomous ride must occur in at least one location in the world.
It does not require that the service be available in every location globally.
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Service Duration
Ongoing Service Requirement: The Robo-Taxi service must be an ongoing operation rather than a one-off demo or short-term stunt.
Temporary Trials: If the service is only a temporary demonstration lasting a few days or weeks, it should resolve as a no outcome.
Expansion Intention: If the service begins with a limited number of routes but shows clear plans for sustained and expanding operations, it qualifies for a yes resolution.
1,000Suppose Tesla offer some free rides to general public in limited numbers in Austin Texas only. Also public cannot buy cars with the feature.
Does this resolve yes?
Or no because of the limited nature whether that is due to limited time, limited area, a trial period not an ongoing service etc. ? What rules apply?
Or no because taxi implies payment for the ride?
or ... ?
@Shrewdan I probably didn't phrase my questions well.
While there are criteria posted, I am unsure how they will be interpreted:
1. "a Robo-Taxi service" it is quite easily possible to interpret this as meaning a 'paid for service' or we could take "possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle" to suggest if you can ride for free then it is possible to ride.
2.."Anywhere in the world" vs 'somewhere in the world'.
Anywhere might suggest it has to be in any location i.e everywhere whereas somewhere might mean just one place. I suspect somewhere in the world was meant and most people are interpreting as that, but anywhere was written. So it would be useful to clarify.
3. "a Robo-Taxi service" as opposed to a short term temporary trial(s)?
I got impression there would be what I call test runs. Initially very limited e.g. only in Austin, only Tesla vehicles, only tesla employees taking rides. The criteria clearly indicate that wouldn't qualify but then there would be further less restrictive test runs which might appear to qualify on a "possible for a non Tesla employee to ride" basis. But is that really going to be considered "a Robo-Taxi service" if it is just a short trial that will end shortly?
While it is possible that I should take the literal meaning of "possible for a non Tesla employee to ride" as the relevant criteria that will be applied there seems sufficient scope to interpret the question differently such that I think it is better to make sure by asking for a clarification.
@GabeGarboden
@ChristopherRandles on point two, maybe my English is different but I use the word anywhere to mean at least one place in the world. I could see how it could be interpreted the other way, but if I meant rides that could be available in any place I would have used the word “everywhere,” not “anywhere.”
@GabeGarboden what about point 3? I thought it was obvious you weren’t using the “stricter” interpretations of the first 2, but I’m unsure in that one.
@DavidHiggs I agree that the spirit of the question is it’s an ongoing service and not just a one off “demo.” If the intention is for it to just be a stunt that lasts a few days/weeks then I’m okay with resolving no. If it starts off with a few routes and it’s clear the intention is to keep expanding, then I think it should resolve yes.
BTW: Right now (last 2 weeks) this is already happening for a thousand Tesla per day except being on public roads and open to non-Tesla employees].
No driver: The vehicle must be fully autonomous with no driver present. [YES]
Open to non Tesla employees: The service must be available to the general public, not just Tesla employees. [NO]
Point-to-point ride: The ride must travel from one distinct location to another over a distance of at least 1 mile (routes that simply loop or circle do not qualify). [YES]
Operates on public roads: The ride must occur on public roads (excluding places like Boring Company tunnels). [NO]
New Tesla vehicles from the Fremont factory now officially drive themselves autonomously 1.2 miles to their designated loading dock without any human intervention. 600-700K cars per year at Fremont. 1500-2000 Tesla per day making the 1.2 mile drive without a driver to loading dock.
@brianwang This is nothing. Mercedes and BMW have been doing this for at least 7 years
Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6762m8SX5kI
Mercedes"level 3" only activates in bumper to bumper highway traffic jams.
Mercedes-Benz DRIVE PILOT system is indeed primarily designed for use in heavy traffic conditions on highways. It can only be activated under specific circumstances that effectively limit its use to bumper-to-bumper traffic scenarios135. The system's operational conditions include:
Presence of a vehicle in front at a close distance3
Clear lane markings3
No emergency vehicles in the area3
These restrictions make DRIVE PILOT most useful in heavy traffic situations where speeds remain consistently low. The system is designed to handle stop-and-go traffic on highways, allowing drivers to potentially engage in other activities during congested commutes36. However, the strict operational requirements can make it challenging to activate and maintain the system's engagement, as even slight changes in traffic flow or conditions may cause it to disengage
DRIVE PILOT cannot change lanes. You have to change the lane if another lane is moving faster in a traffic jam. Level 2 driver assist can change lanes but you must touch the wheel at all times.
@brianwang I wasn't talking about drive pilot. I was pointing out that the thing you're bragging that Tesla just started doing has been done by other companies for years, and should not be building confidence that a car is close to achieving L4.
@WrongoPhD IF the Mercedes drive from factory to loading dock was a not a one off stunt or test then they would show all cars making the drive all the time. Also, MB has very few DRIVE PILOT capable cars. It is an extra $2500 per car. It must use LIDAR (they use Luminar LIDAR) and other sensors. How many of their cars have the LIDAR and sensors and the Nvidia chips? ALL Tesla cars have the cameras and systems to perform the factory to loading dock drive. Mercedes buys from Luminar for Lidar. Total revenue for Q1 2024 was $21 million. Largest Luminar customer was Tesla for LIDAR comparative testing against the all camera main system.
@WrongoPhD I think it is close to L4 but it is close for this question for sure. Roll out the factory to loading docks drive or truck offload to ship in Austin, Shanghai, Berlin. It will move up from 2000 miles per day to 6000-20000 miles per day. Tesla FSD Actual Smart Summon (driverless summon and dispatch to parking up to 85 meters line of sight.) Unscientific poll is finding about 30% use actual smart summon. 20-30% is multiple times per day or every day. 100-150k every day. 1K per week for 100K. About 1 million miles per year and increasing to 3 million miles for unsupervised supply chain drives and 500k/year no driver summon and dispatch drives. Supervised robotaxi for employees also in the 500k per year level. Versus 10 million miles of paid rides for Waymo.
Musk reportedly said unsupervised robotaxis are going to start in Austin in June. Fill my purchase orders now before it's too late!
Waymo’s early days had a safety driver. Can Tesla’s fully autonomous system include a safety driver?
@GabeGarboden based on the title I think a predetermined bus route clearly doesn't qualify, unless you've got some definition of "taxi" I've never heard
@DavidFWatson Waymo counts as robotaxi even if geofenced. No driver with paid rides is the standard for waymo
@brianwang Geofenced robotaxi service is not the same as a bus-like predetermined route. For example, Aptiv has taken riders on a few pre-determined loops/routes as a demo at CES, on public roads even. I don’t think that sort of setup counts as a robotaxi service.
@CharlesFoster this question says
Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?
Has to be a service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city.
Boring company tunnels don’t count.
--a ride over 1 mile on public roads for people who are not tesla employees.
If the Austin thing happens. no driver, on public roads, rides over 1 mile and paid then this has to resolve yes.
@GabeGarboden
>"Hmm. Based on the description I think a predetermined bus route would count as yes"
Description says "Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile."
While you might be really lucky and find that both the starting point and finishing point that you want are both on the predetermined route, that seems like a fluke and not what I would understand by a "point to point" requirement. So why are you saying this would count?
.
Taxi definition
a motor vehicle licensed to transport passengers in return for payment of a fare
If Tesla only provides a few free (point to point) rides to general public by year end, does this resolve yes or fail the 'robo-taxi service' definition?
@ChristopherRandles I believe this should resolve yes based on the description. It doesn’t stipulate that a certain amount of rides must occur, or how many different routes/area. When I wrote point to point I meant that it actually has to travel a certain distance, not just looping around in circles.
As long as
no driver
Open to non Tesla employees
At least one mile
On public roads
Point to point (from one location to another)
Then I believe it should resolve yes. I don’t see another way to interpret or add additional stipulations. Other markets stipulating size, number of rides, and availability zones can and do exist, but that’s not this question