What will Trump's first executive order be about?

Plus

111

Ṁ11k

resolved Jan 21

32%0.9%

Government/Regulations/Elections

21%43%Other

13%0.3%

Climate Change/The Environment/Energy

13%0.2%

Healthcare/ACA

8%43%

Immigration/The Border

5%0.9%

LGBT Rights

3%3%

Foreign Policy

3%0.4%

Inflation/Economy

1%0.2%

Abortion/Women's Rights

1%0.2%

Israel

0.7%

Tariffs/Foreign Trade

Pardons/January 6th

Russia/Ukraine/NATO

Resolves based on my subjective opinion, to the most applicable option. If multiple options are clearly applicable (eg. "This order adds tariffs and withdraws the US from NATO", it resolves to the options equally). If you would like to add more options, feel free to suggest.

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Executive orders must be subtitled "EXECUTIVE ORDER" rather than "A PROCLAMATION" to count for this market. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Resolution Method:
- Review each repealed executive order
- Categorize them based on their purpose (e.g., climate change, DEI, COVID, immigration, voting access, energy, racial equity)
- Proportionally resolve the market according to these categories (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I've resolved it based on my determinations. The full list with categorization is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f7z3_AjlLr_bLUxQipwIeMCnI0EwfvDj6Q6DtBkQtwM/view

The first executive order seems to have been about repealing past executive orders on many other topics, including climate change, DEI, COVID, immigration, voting access, energy, racial equity, and more.

Does anyone have ways they would recommend resolving this? I’m leaning towards going through every repealed order, categorizing them according to their purpose, and then proportionally resolving the market.

@Gabrielle maybe identify which of the above categories are applicable, and then evenly divide the resolution between those categories.

@Gabrielle Seems fair to me

@gamedev yeah proportional is probably the most fair.

I've closed the market while I investigate whether https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/flying-the-flag-of-the-united-states-at-full-staff-on-inauguration-day/ counts as an executive order or not.

Flying The Flag Of The United States At Full-Staff On Inauguration Day – The White House

BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION By the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Gabrielle an executive order will have an EO#.

I've confirmed that this is not an executive order and it will not count for this market. The clearest proof is that executive orders will be subtitled "EXECUTIVE ORDER" rather than "A PROCLAMATION".

This category also includes oil drilling, renewable energy, nuclear energy, coal mining, pipelines, natural gas, and similar topics.

Do you have in mind what the first 24 to 48 hours will look like?
I'll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.

https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/

The Department of Governmental Efficiency would fall under this answer

@Gabrielle does this include leaving WHO or Climate Process?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 If it was just about the WHO, it would be 50% healthcare, 50% foreign policy. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement would be 100% Climate Change/The Environment (a new category).

bought Ṁ50 YES

It's not a perfect arb for a few reasons, but I think there might be something here: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trumps-first-executive-order-b

@Fion yes beyond "subjective judgment differs" b/w me & gabrielle i'd say the only real difference is that gabrielle's market could potentially spslit its resolutions between options if it's sufficiently broad so should probably trade a bit below mine

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