Will AI girlfriends overtake real girlfriends before 2035?
36
Ṁ2060
2035
13%
chance

This resolves to true if and only if the number of individuals dedicated to AI girlfriends exceeds the number of individuals with only real girlfriends (unmarried) in the U.S. before 2035.

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Worth noting that it's possible to have an AI sex, or possibly even romance, toy that one wouldn't consider a girlfriend or boyfriend. I suspect that far more people will have an AI that they do sexual things with, than would call that AI a "girlfriend", especially given shame etc.

Not sure what data source/ definition will be used to determine the count of girlfriends, but the rising number of people living alone seems like important context

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/10/05/rising-share-of-u-s-adults-are-living-without-a-spouse-or-partner/

@JonahWeissman ok, but anecdotally, most people I know who would count as "unpartnered" in the above graph have one or more non-ai partners. If we're going by the metric of "not married or cohabiting with a romantic partner", I'd be inclined to bet on Yes here.