Will the next President of the United States go by a different first name or nickname that is NOT one of their birth name(s)?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ9525
Jan 20
3%
chance

Resolves based on whether or not their public facing first name, or preferred nickname, is also one of their birth names. Last names not considered.

They must be sworn in as president, and "confirmed" or whatever. Doesn't matter if they get there by election or military coup.

Acting President doesn't count.

Examples of future presidents who would resolve this market YES:

Peter "Pete" Buttigieg

Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz

John Ellis "Jeb" Bush

Ronald "Ron" DeSantis

Ye "Ye" (Kanye West at birth)

Michael "Mike" Pence

Examples of future presidents who would resolve this market NO:

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom

Nimrata Nikki Randhawa Haley ("Nikki" appears to be one of her birth names)

If someone is assigned a nickname and rejects it, it doesn't count. It needs to be a name they are called more often than their born first name,

Please comment if you would like a ruling on anyone in particular.

Update 8Jan2023: Joseph "Joe" Biden is the current president. His re-election in 2024 would delay resolution of this market, but it would not resolve. This market is based on whoever is sworn in as the "next" president, President 47.

Fun fact: The only president to be "2 presidents" is Grover Cleveland. He was the 22nd President 1885-1889, lost re-election, and then was re-elected after a 4 year break from 1893-1897 as the 24th President.

Because of this, Donald J Trump or other past presidents could still be the "next" President, while Biden (current president) would not be the "next" president, just serving a second term.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

My bad I resolved before I read my own description. Gotta wait until he’s sworn in

Why is this

valued so high?

Kanye is referred to as Kanye much more often than Ye, even though I get the sense that he personally prefers Ye.

@MattReardon “Ye” is his complete legal name.

predicts YES

Ye rejects anyone calling him Kanye, he will correct it, and will actually be upset if people address him as Kanye repeatedly

Also, there is no way he becomes president lol, just added him as a good example of "rejecting" a birth name in favour of an alternative

I stand corrected and agree. I guess it's both funnier and more accurate if you adjust the description to: Ye "Kanye West" then?

predicts YES

Fair point, I will change it to something like that in a moment

@Gen Slight correction: his name isn’t “Ye West”, it’s just “Ye”.

predicts YES

@NcyRocks Thanks, fixed. Let me know if you have any further corrections or suggestions to make it look sillier while still being accurate

Joseph "Joe" Biden

predicts YES

@NathanpmYoung Joe Biden is the current president. I'm willing to discuss it if you disagree, but as far as I see it, re-election will mean he serves a second term. He wouldn't be the "next" (47th) president.

predicts YES

@Gen Ooooooooooh

predicts YES

@Gen Maybe add this to the description, because it was not totally clear4me2

predicts YES

@yaboi69 I added an update along with my rationale

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules