Will the next President of the United States die in office?
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The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?
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There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:
https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i
On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.
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