Will Biden complete his term?
➕
Plus
153
Ṁ37k
Jan 21
97%
chance

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

They seem to have him stabilized on some hardcore drugs that keep his eyes so wide open he has to wear sunglasses all the time; might just make it.

@Gigacasting 🤣

predictedNO
23% resign, unknown percent removal or fall off one too many bikes: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term
Joe Biden Odds According to political betting sites, Biden is 4/9 to remain in office until his first term is over. That’s a 69% likelihood and hasn’t changed in weeks. It reflects the confidence bookmakers have that Biden won’t be ousted or won’t step down until his time is up.
predictedNO
https://www.gambling.com/news/betting-opens-on-joe-biden-completing-full-term-of-presidency-2369600
@Gigacasting I don't think a 69% probability shows confidence
@MP I agree that 69 percent is probably the lowest at any point in modern history. Not a sign of confidence. Okay his number should NEVER dip below 90.
@BTE 90% is loosely his likelihood of being alive by 2024 (because 4 of the 45 presidents were assassinated, I guess it can be argued that the POTUS has a higher likelihood of death than the average man of his age). I guess that a mid-80s probability is what should be considered healthy for a president like Biden.
predictedNO
Actual arb: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bidens-term-will-end-with
Arb: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/when-will-donald-trump-announce-his
There have been 59 elections in the US history. 9 individuals didn't complete their terms (4 were killed, 4 dead from natural causes and 1 resigned). Biden is by far the oldest: he's oldest today than the oldest president was after him when lefting the office. A 78yo individual has 4.6% likelihood of dying and there are 2y until he finishes his term.
I think he is going to have a major cognitive decline after Covid and it’s going to get worse from there.
predictedNO
I should say from Covid

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules