There are already investigations into musk and specifically Tesla for false advertising and stock manipulation. Musk knows this and perhaps he is attempting to deflect from his guilt by pivoting to trump support and playing the persecuted political opponent game. And if trump wins then those investigations die anyway.

The tweet mentions "first move" but the market mentions "entire first term." I don't think you need the longer market resolve. Three months would be more suiting to the tweet and also entices more people to bet.

@GazDownright the tweet says first thing, but this market is for the entire term. The idea that Harris/Walz would "ban twitter/X" is so unlikely I felt it was better to give people some incentive to bet Yes.

@GordanKnott Fair enough, I buy that. I doubt the probability is that much difference either way, though, but maybe that's just me.

Asking for clarification. Would Musk just need to be arrested by any USA jurisdiction in general? Or would it need to be at a USA federal level?

Or would being arrested by any nation satisfy that condition?

@Quroe I think it would need to be a part of the government that "Harris/Walz" have influence over