Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
Basic
3
Ṁ412030
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors. The LLM must provide feedback to >50% of reviewed papers (though human peer-review could still happen alongside the LLM).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
65% chance
At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?
27% chance
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
43% chance
LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)
49% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
67% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
22% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance