Will an LLM have a context window of 20M or more in 2024?
Plus
31
Ṁ4018Jan 1
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to Yes on or before Dec 31, 2024 if a widely available LLM in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Top 15 overall has a widely available context window of 20 million tokens or more. This can be via API, open source, web, app or other interface.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters?
15% chance
Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024?
17% chance
What will be the maximum context length of any OpenAI LLM by EOY 2024?
Will LLM progress stall in 2024?
3% chance
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
38% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
28% chance