![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fd0l6tnuYJi.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df823123b-89a3-4812-80e2-bc8f134ff02c&w=3840&q=75)
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
Basic
56
Ṁ4.0k2075
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@CodeandSolder An existential catastrophe would likely prevent me from resolving this market, so it's not a functional difference from not having that there; it just reminds people to take that into account.
@IsaacKing in real world obviously yes, but I assumed we ignored boring practical aspects like that, much like with markets ending in 2075 vs 2100
@IsaacKing the question is is it (conditional on no existential catastrophe by 2075) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075) or (conditional on no existential catastrophe before there is a superinteligence) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075)
More related questions
Related questions
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
59% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
66% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
33% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
78% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
39% chance
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
29% chance
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
52% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
55% chance
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
64% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
36% chance