How will I die?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ26k
2070
79%
Any cause that would have resulted in a successful cryopreservation if I had been signed up for cryonics. (N/A if I was signed up.)
50%
Cardiovascular disease
45%
A heart attack
39%
Any cause that could reasonably be blamed on my poor long-term diet choices.
28%
By very slow decay
20%
Cancer
9%
A stroke
8%
Any accident that was my fault.
5%
Suicide
5%
A car accident
3%
Freezing
2%
Any cause due to wearing a helmet (N/A if wasn't wearing a helmet)
1.6%
By high ordeal
1.6%
A nuclear bomb
1.2%
Any cause that would have been prevented if I were wearing a helmet at the time. (N/A if I was wearing a helmet.)
1%
By common trial
1%
Drowning
1%
A shark attack

This market resolves to my cause(s) of death. Answers don't need to be mutually exclusive; all that are accurate will be selected. (I'll N/A duplicates or near-duplicates that serve no useful purpose.)

For any answers with an unknown truth value, whoever is resolving this market should resolve to YES any answer for which their personal credence is at least 90%, and resolve to NO all others. (Delaying resolution if it seems likely that the answer will become known within a reasonable amount of time.) If an answer is significantly ambiguous, N/A it. In the event of disagreement over these resolution criteria, the resolver should try to resolve in accordance with how they expect I would have interpreted those criteria.

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By common trial

@Forrest What are the resolution criteria for this?

It was a semi-joke answer (in reference to this), so I didn't have detailed resolution criteria in mind.

What is OP's age? your weight & height & body fat percentage? How often do you travel? Do you have a lot of enemies? Have you ever had cancer before? do you smoke 20 packs a day? Also don't answer this with PII, just give us vague vibes of ur general health.

7tgf6tqgfaew

Whoops, that was my parrot. I'm 27. Too lazy to go figure out the other details exactly: I think I'm about average height, slightly below average weight and BMI. I stay in my house most of the time but do long-distance travel maybe once a month, both by car and plane. I don't smoke. I do have a bear that I have to chase out of my yard from time to time, that could be my most likely cause of death while at home. Or viciously attacked by an angry parrot.

Imagine locking away your mana until 2070

in my defense, i did it for the funny

@Endothermia easy quick win to bet on Murdered and then find him.

Freezing

@IsaacKing Does cryonic suspension count? Does The heat death of the universe?

Freezing
bought Ṁ10 Freezing YES

Hopefully due to the heat death of the universe, that is.

Why do people interpret "heat death of the universe" as "everyone dies from cold" rather than "energy reserves run out over septillions of years and people have plenty of time to notice and then pass away from natural causes without making offspring so to avoid them starving or something similar"

I took it partially symbolically I guess, as "cold" meaning "running out of heat (=useable energy in general)", even if the thing that dies is a simulation running on a computer extracting Hawking radiation around a black hole or something and not literally a body freezing to death.

And I mean that regardless if it's a body or a simulation I don't see the reason to literally let it run until it physically can't anymore instead of leaving a .01% buffer in which you can gracefully shutdown/die of natural causes, and which probably doesn't count as freezing/running out of resources in the exact same way as uncontrollably failing because of that does.

A nuclear bomb

Worth noting that nukes and other global existential risks will be vastly underestimated due to correlation with death of the traders

Any cause due to wearing a helmet (N/A if wasn't wearing a helmet)
bought Ṁ5 A car accident YES

Could you summarise? I don't really want to see footage of people dying

It is safe, just a guy talking. Basically the weight and size added to the head by a helmet can potentially lead to neck/spinal cord injuries when the helmet is worn in a regular car (without a harness that professional racing drivers/cars have in addition).

Right fair enough

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