How will I die?

Plus

Ṁ7706

2099

52%

Natural Disease

51%

I will live to see 2100.

30%

Aging

20%

Pandemic of a Future Artificial Disease

17%

Pandemic of a Future, Infectious, Natural Disease

14%

A Catastrophe that is mainly caused by Artificial Intelligence

11%

War

11%

Accident

Traffic Accident or other Transport Injury

Suicide

Food Poisoning

1.8%

Natural Disaster

1.7%

Starvation

1.4%

Consumption Addiction

I will give trusted people access to my account in the case of my death such that they can resolve. Multiple choices are possible.

I might add more options down the line.
Feel free to ask for clarifications.
If I live to see 2100, this market closes and only that option will be chosen.

About me:
- I don't want to die
- I'm born in 1997
- 179 cm
- 60 ~ 65 kg
- amab
- I have no lethal chronic conditions
- I live in the Netherlands
- I commute by car ~50km per week
- I do desk work
- I do kickboxing and Zumba 3x/week
- I am allergic to nuts, but can eat them in micro doses (if I die due to this, it will count as food poisoning)
- I am mildly asthmatic
- I drink ~2 glasses of wine a week
- I do not smoke

Man-made related causes of death resolve this entire question to N/A if the identity and/or incentives of the culprit are unclear for the purpose of preventing perverse incentives. If the cause of death is uncertain and possibly man-made, then this question could also still resolve to N/A for the same reason.

This question resolves regardless of whether my corpse is successfully preserved by cryonics.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

10 Comments

41 Holders

182 Trades

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bought Ṁ10 YES

I think people born -91 will reach longevity escape velocity, so the only thing that can stop you from becoming 2100yo would be some type of kinetic death. Hopefully you are careful with the kickboxing, stay safe!

Do you spar a lot with Semmy (and is Semmy also attending the Zumba-class)

It seems like people have chosen the more “exciting” ways to die for some reason, probably because they stick with the brain. IDK why terrorist is that high seems pretty crazy. Also they live in the Netherlands so dying by transport injury seems very unlikely, even if you do commute by car. (The Netherlands is renowned for its low traffic fatalities because of good road design+walkability.)

bought Ṁ10 YES

@LucasKozbinski I think the AI will convince us to commit suicide, so I think that resolves as suicide and not AI since technically chose to kill ourselves instead.

@TimothyBandors really? why would it? also it would also resolve to catastrophe due to AI, if there was anyone left to resolve it

@Jono3h IMHO if you make the free decision to kill yourself post learning of an incoming catastrophe but before the catastrophe itself, the last human alive should resolve this in my favor

Why is this so low?????

How do you decide between “aging” and “natural diisease” if, say, you die of cancer at 91? Also, if you’d like to share, do you smoke regularly and what is your BMI?

@mariopasquato Both will be chosen!
I do not smoke, I am born with Asthma so I have been very cautious with that.
I'm 179cm and tend to weight between 60 and 65kg.

@Jono3h Looks like you will live long

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