"In power" is any position that gives him plausibly the most power of any individual over the US. President, or perhaps a new position that gets created.
1,000
3.00@IsaacKing this time around there's a term limit. If Trump wins in 2024, do you expect him to run for a third term? He's said things to the effect that the term limit shouldn't apply to him, but I don't think the Republican party will go along with that, and I don't think states would list him on ballots. For Trump to remain in power in February would require a full rejection of the constitutional system and I just don't see that happening.
@IsaacKing He has to win, subvert the constitution and survive both politically and physically. So several steps, albeit correlated.
@33cb So based on:
/MartinRandall/trump-vs-biden-2024
We have a ~27% chance that Trump wins, so this market predicts a conditional probability of ~40% that he is still in power after his term limit. That seems high to me, given that he didn't manage to get a second term.
@jcb At this point I think the Republican party will go along with pretty much whatever he asks.
@IsaacKing Maybe this is where we disagree. I think about half the party or slightly less would, and the other half is more traditional rule-of-law conservatives who take the constitution very seriously. For example I can't imagine McConnell going with this (though it's pretty certain that he'll be gone by 2029), or in general much of the Senate who mostly do have to care about moderate/swing voters in their states.
@jcb Yeah, the only way Trump was going to hold onto the presidency in 2020 was through stuff like Georgia where it could be argued that it was legal. If he seized power violently, he would not see February imo. The military would legally answer to the next guy, and I have not been given the impression that top brass likes him that much (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/military-officers-trump/598360/). I'd also bet on a supermajority in congress being opposed to a coup.