Is superintelligence possible within the known laws of physics?
Plus
30
Ṁ18992300
96%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
72% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
38% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
36% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
78% chance
Is AGI possible within the known laws of physics?
99% chance
Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?
24% chance
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
72% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
82% chance
Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?
72% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
86% chance