Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Basic
9
Ṁ1782029
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
The last third-party candidate to win one or more states was George Wallace of the American Independent Party in 1968
That's about 14 presidential elections. Very rough napkin math then suggests 2/14 = 14% as a base rate.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
4% chance
Will a third party get more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elections?
2% chance
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 2%?
2% chance
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 3%?
2% chance
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
6% chance
Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
73% chance
Will a third party candidate win 2024 US presidential election?
2% chance
Will any 3rd party candidate win over 1% of the popular vote nationally?
48% chance
Will a 3rd party candidate get at least 12% of the popular vote in any state in the 2024 US presidential election?
1% chance