Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
94
1.7kṀ14k2030
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Anything highly credible, such as what happened with SBF. Doesn't need to be legally charged.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?
18% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
68% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?
4% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
19% chance
Sort by:
I've created a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?
18% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
68% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?
4% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
19% chance