Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030? | Manifold

Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?

94

1.7kṀ14k

2030

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Anything highly credible, such as what happened with SBF. Doesn't need to be legally charged.

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

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I've created a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

'Found' meaning convicted, accused in a plausible manner? what if the fraud is minor, does not get prosecuted, but is discovered / admitted after the statute of prosecution expires?

Anything highly plausible, such as the current accusations about SBF.

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