Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026? | Manifold

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Plus

18

Ṁ437

2026

69%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/index/policies

As of market creation, the "gender identity" tab currently includes 37 states that are either "high" or "negative" in their policy tally. At market close, this resolves YES if that number is 45 or above, otherwise it resolves NO.

In the event that lgbtmap changes its scoring criteria significantly or ceases to exist, I'll do my best to resolve based on the scoring criteria in place at the time of market creation.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Trans Questions

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

For trans policy in particular, you want the "gender identity" tab - which is already at 37 states (and four territories.) It could decrease over the next few years, so it's not an auto-YES, but...

@evergreenemily Oh whoops, you're right. I fixed the numbers in the description to make sense.

Related questions

In Texas, will there be a high-profile case of a transgender child being separated from their parents before 2025?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will a US state vote on a ballot measure this year targeting LGBT+ rights?

By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned?

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Related questions

In Texas, will there be a high-profile case of a transgender child being separated from their parents before 2025?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Will a US state vote on a ballot measure this year targeting LGBT+ rights?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned?

Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules