Seems like there are enough news reports (albeit based on rumors) to resolve this to YES? Apple might not release official figures anyway, so depending on the level of evidence needed this could in theory otherwise be impossible to resolve.

@JacksonWagner have you decided what the resolution criteria are here? :)

@HenriThunberg good point, and thanks for the reminder -- ideally I'd like to go with the same resolution criteria that the other Vision Pro markets plan to use (ie the ones by yourself, Ian Phillips, and others). If we don't get official word from Apple, should we just go with whatever Min-Chi Kuo says?? Should we wait for some credible balance of reporting, or for the rumored reports to exceed the threshold by some margin? Will we someday be able to get accurate (or at least closer) numbers based on investors analyzing some Apple quarterly financial report?

@JacksonWagner I think this might have to resolve. Several quarterly reports have come out and there are still not any official figures.

News items are only debating whether 3-4-or-500k units will be sold in 2024, while they seem to agree that it's more than 200k.

I will wait at least until the end of this quarter, and maybe through 2024, just since it doesn't seem right to resolve a 2024 market only halfway through the year on uncertain info. But yeah, if I had to go on the balance of reporting available now (which is mostly about sales expectations for the year, not numbers concretely sold so far??), I would likely resolve YES.

Lofty goal ->

Airpods made 12.1bn revenue in 2022 for comparison

@Undox at $3,500 per unit this market is asking for 525,000,000 in sales for a product that dosnt have a launch date yet.

Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi

285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h

575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea

750k: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h

850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab

1400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year?

350K expected. “Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units” [1] “KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predict…