EOY 2025: Will open LLMs match closed-source LLMs on coding to within 50 ELO points?
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On December 31 2025, will the LMSys code arena's best closed-source LLM out-perform the best open-weights LLM by less than 50 points?
As of July 27, 2024 the gap is 58 ELO points.
If LMSys ceases to exist or to evaluate models, I will resolve to 50%.
If a model is open-weights but the LMSys eval uses an API e.g. deepseekv2-API this still qualifies as open-weights (unless I get evidence that the API version was different enough to affect this question; in such a case I would resolve to 50%).
Chart from https://x.com/maximelabonne/status/1779801605702836454 This shows all-question ELO whereas this market resolves by coding-only ELO, the trend is similar.
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