Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

111

1kṀ28k

Dec 31

47%

chance

ALL

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
- Method: The outcome will be determined using lmarena's designation.
- Definition: An LLM is considered open if it is listed as something other than 'proprietary'.

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@jim Is "open weights" is sufficient to count for this?

@DanHomerick the plan is just to use lmarena's designation. If it's listed as something other than "proprietary" will probably count.

Accord to NYT? Never. Highest Eli score would b due to “copying”, “trickery”, “undisclosed info in the 1st page of disclosure doc”, “conspiracy”…besides “we don’t use Elo anymore”.

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