Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?
Plus
1
Ṁ1232028
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Joe Biden's net approval rating fell to a new low of Disapprove +20.2% in the 538 average on July 4th (How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight).
Similarly, it fell to a new low of Disapprove +19.3% in the RCP average on July 5th (President Biden Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling)
Will Biden's successor poll worse than this according to either 538 or RCP by October 31st 2028?
If both sources stop publishing before expiry, I will pick a successor source that is widely cited and has as similar a methodology as possible. If the 47th President polls lower according to either RCP or 538, that will be sufficient to resolve "yes". They do not have to poll lower in both sources. Ties do not count as "lower".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump's net approval one year after his inauguration be at least 10 points worse than on his inauguration?
60% chance
Will Joe Biden have a positive net approval in his first term?
17% chance
If Biden is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
20% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 45% after one year in office?
23% chance
Will Joe Biden's Approval Rating Reach 50% or Higher?
4% chance
Will Biden’s approval ever exceed 50% (sans emergency)?
16% chance
Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% in his first term?
4% chance
Will Biden's Approval Rating Reach 50%?
8% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
8% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
9% chance