How Long Til We’re All on Ozempic?

GLP-1s will increase from eight million patient-years to roughly enough for approximately 23 million Americans by 2030. Still, this is only enough supply for about 15% of the 147 million Americans with diabetes or obesity.

Using some loophole concerning compounding pharmacies, one can apparently get such drugs for about $254/month today: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-compounding-loophole

Once the general shortage ends, this loophole might be closed again, as noted in the above article.

Thanks for sharing that!

I'm inclined to say that the loophole would qualify for positive resolution, but the price is still above $200 inflation-adjusted dollars (the threshold is $204.39 as of July 2024 according to the BLS CPI calculator).

Another concern is that the shortage might last for <1 year so condition [3] probably wouldn't be met.

Indeed, that's also how I would interpret the question! I think if the prices at one of the compounding pharmacies would drop below $204, and would continue being available for an entire year after that, the question could be resolved positively.

How does this resolve if insurance companies are willing to foot the bill in its entirety? My sister is taking it and pays nothing, at the moment. I'm not sure if that's the norm, yet, but it seems like insurance companies are considering effective obesity treatments as worthwhile investments.

@AndrewHartman that wouldn't count, hence "retail price". I'll add a clarification.