Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?
Plus
11
Ṁ9432049
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Calculus of Inductive Constructions is the formal system underlying the Coq proof assistant (see https://coq.github.io/doc/v8.9/refman/language/cic.html).
This will resolve to YES if a proof of a contradiction is published in a peer-reviewed scientific conference or journal on computer proof assistants or a similar area, such as Logic in Computer Science, or if a majority vote of at least 5 researchers in the field of computer proof assistants agree that such a result published elsewhere is correct, before the start of 2050. Otherwise, this will resolve to NO at the start of 2050.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
32% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
45% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
72% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
38% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
78% chance
Will the 'Logical Induction' paper be built on by 3+ theory or ML papers before 2025?
10% chance
By 2025, percent of 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability solved?
23% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
79% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
65% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
75% chance