![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FJohnOFarrar%252F259f38937347.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Who will win the Russia-Ukraine War?
Basic
17
αΉ7462030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
57%
Stalemate
31%
Ukraine
12%
Russia
Will Resolve by 2030, or sooner if it becomes clear that one side has achieved the victory conditions.
Resolves Ukraine if Ukraine manages to retake and defend the majority of lands captured by Russia as of December 2023.
Resolves Russia if Russia manages to capture and defend half of all pre-war Ukrainian land.
Resolves Stalemate if neither of these conditions occur by 2030.
Get αΉ600 play money
Sort by:
@Jono3h Crimea was defacto held by Russia before the war, however if Ukraine recaptured Crimea it will almost certainly indicate a Ukrainian victory.
More related questions
Related questions
Who will win the war in Ukraine?
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
47% chance
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
51% chance
What will be true of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Will Vladimir Putin be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
60% chance
How will the war in Ukraine end?
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
22% chance
Which season will the Ukraine war end?
when will the Ukraine war stop?
2027