When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Mini
6
Ṁ3142026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.3%
Q3 2023
2%
Q4 2023
18%
Q1-Q2 2024
31%
Q3-Q4 2024
28%
2025
11%
2026
9%
"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.
But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).
Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
@JonEzeiza bro, if u r referring to GPT-4-0314, we already have several open source models better than it
Related questions
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
84% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?
50% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
33% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will a Mamba-based LLM of GPT 3.5 quality or greater be open sourced in 2024?
63% chance
There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
90% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
65% chance
Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024?
83% chance